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April Talking About UK Public Finances

Foxy — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:55:18 +0000

Foxy — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 20:36:41 +0000

Foxy — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 15:11:59 +0000

Global sell off for stocks extended to Asia as Italian bond yields move higher worsening Europe’s debt crisis
Pummeling regional financial stocks and sending the Tokyo market sliding to a one-month low
Net change in asain majors are down significantly HK down 4.5% Korea down 3.5% Japan and Australia down 2.7%
Italy will have T-bill auction later today which will be interesting as economists are advising not to buy Italian debt
EUR JPY GBP and AUD appear to be consolidating oversold conditions in 35 to 45 tic ranges

Foxy — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:06:05 +0000

Markets opened with gains but was short lived indexes turned to red when Italian 10-year bond yields surged to all-time highs showing Berlusconi’s vow to resign is not enough to ease fears also 2yr and 5yr BTP’s yields are now over the 10yr BTP yield
Eurostoxx 50 down 1.85% the DAX down 1.8% the CAC down 1.4% the FTSE down 1.1%
Optimism of Berlusconi’s resignation yesterday turned to fear as investors concerned about the uncertainty as Berlusconi depart the consequence is Italian borrowing costs rallied to Post-Euro highs as the 10-year bond yields at 6.76% the 2yr 7.5% also not a good sign
The macroeconomic front UK trade deficit figures added reasons for concern UK trade gap rose to a record high at GBP 9.8B in September well above market consensus of a GBP 8.0B deficit August trade gap was revised to GBP 8.6 B from the previous GBP 7.6 B
EUR/USD rally from 1.3600 lows Monday was capped at 1.3860 high in the Asian session the pair sold off to 1.3800 then accelerated during the European session to one-week lows of 1.3655 so far
GBP/USD rally from last weeks lows of 1.5875 hit highs Tuesday of 1.6130 the pair started selling off from poor UK trade balance figures breaking below 1.6000 back to week lows of 1.5980
USD/JPY broke thru 78.00 area was contained at 77.55, then rallied at the European session open supported by general dollar strength it still remains capped below 77.75 the previous post-intervention low

Foxy — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 20:55:21 +0000

Foxy — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 15:00:39 +0000

Markets opened stronger with investors still cautious from growing concern about uncertainty in Italy which pushed the country’s borrowing costs to all-time highs of 7%
Eurostoxx 50 up 0.7% the DAX up 0.9% the CAC up 0.8% the FTSE up 0.7% in the first two hours of trading
Investor’s focus on Italy as parliament is going to vote on the public budget which could trigger a confidence vote of prime minister Silvio Berlusconi whose support weakened considerably within the government coalition the EU and IMF pushing for implementation of controversial austerity measures
Tensions in Greece are easing after Papandreu’s resignation forming a unity government ECB vice president Lucas Papademos is leading the polls to be Prime minister although IMF director Panagiotis Roumeliotis is also an important candidate
The Euro and Pound have rallied from positive equity markets EUR/USD sell off from 1.3780 was contained at 1.3725 the pair rallied to session highs of 1.3790 GBP/USD rallied from 1.6035 hitting highs of 1.6090 USD/CHF rally from 0.8760 low last week is been capped at 0.9065 the pair sold off of session highs moving right below 0.9000 USD/JPY quietly trading 78.05 to 77.97

Foxy — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 14:52:48 +0000

Greek politicians reach deal for unity govt will pass reforms needed for bailout Greek PM Papandreaou to be replaced on Monday no new leader announced Greek opposition parities agree on tentative Feb 19 election
Berlusconi says he has enough votes for majority opposition disgrees
Japan leading indicators -2.2 points from Aug
FT G20 fin mins could meet again this year on Greece Gold touches highest since Sept 20
EUR/CHF jumps after warning from SNB’s Hildebrand
ANZ job ads -0.7% in Oct AiG performance of construction to 34.7 from 30.0
Exchanges lower margins to deal with MF Global complications
EUR/USD rallied at the open 60 pips higher to 1.3839 the gains were cleared out due to the list of worries about Italy selling off to 1.3771
GBP whacked traders opening above last week’s highs hitting 1.6076 then selling off immediately and continued selling off till hitting bids near 1.6007 area EUR/CHF was the big move gapping 50 pips on the open rallying 50 pips more thru 1.2300 and consolidating
JPY still consolidating since last weeks intervention 7817 to 7805 range during asian session

Foxy — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 19:22:11 +0000

Foxy — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 14:33:00 +0000

Commodity FX pairs lagging after RBA cuts growth and inflation forecasts
Rio Tinto Chair boss China visibly slowing but should remain resilient \
Chinese officials indicate continued inflation-fighting bias slow growth
BOC’s Carney to be named FSB chair
Reuters US Treasury data shows Japan may have spent $50B in intervention
Asian trading was a volatile and non directional EUR/USD rallied to highs of 1.3838 early in asian trading session falling short of US session highs
The risk off trade started right after RBA statements then consolidated off the lows AUD/USD rallied early then was capped off earlier highs at 1.0440 struggling after then selling off as low as 1.0370 RBA forecasts were dovish comments from Rio Tinto then weighed on AUD GBP managed to stay above 1.6000 but just the worst performance was USD/CAD taking the worst of the commodity pairs

Foxy — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 13:56:33 +0000

Markets are trading lower with bank shares leading losses the sector is in focus from uncertainty about Greece and potential consequences of the financial sector if Greece leaves the Euro zone
Eurostoxx 50 down 0.65% the DAX Index down 1.15% the CAC Index down 0.6% the FTSE Index down 0.5% one hour after opening
Investors are concerned after the Greek announcement of a referendum to endorse the Euro zone bailout plan December 4th which is understood as a crucial vote for Greece to continue in the Euro zone raising serious concerns of a negative outcome Greece’s exit from the Euro zone will produce a default hitting the regions banking system as well as troubled EU countries such as Italy or Spain
The banking sector is leading losses weighed by uncertainty about Greece and weaker quarterly earnings figures by BNP Paribas which announced a 72% net income drop weighed by exposure to Italian and Greek debt
The Euro and Pound are trying to bottom after recent sell-offs
EUR/USD hit support at 1.3655 the pair is trimming losses and rallying to session highs at 1.3760 GBP/USD sell off from 1.6050 consolidated at 1.5875 then rallied to 1.5960 USD/JPY remains trading sideways between 78.00 and 78.20 so much for the 79.20 peg